First, lets start with yesterdays tips. We had a good performance from Notus de la Tour who finished a close third and gave us a good e/w return. Cappagh was disappointing having been backed into a crazy 7/4! See you Jack just found the going to tough and although a slightly better run - he was looked after by Andy Thornton when finding the going tough and will stay well handicapped to win with conditions more in his favour. I don't think Fakenham will be his course and it might be back to Huntingdon in the future.
onto todays tips.............................
Ascot 1.20
I fancy the likely testing conditions will be more in the favour of TORNADO BOB than his main market rivals and I think this may be the deciding factor. Tornado Bob has won his last two hurdle starts well on soft and heavy ground and should find no terrors in todays ground. He seems to be learning how to settle and should be able to take this on his way to better things.
Recommended bet
3pts win Tornado Bob 13/8 Bet 365
Ascot 3.35
LIKE MINDED travelled weel for a long way in the Lanzarote before weakening out of things when looking likely to be involved in the finish. It was his first run for well over a year and I expect that to have put him right for todays race. He has only had the three starts over hurdles and is one of only a couple that may be well handicapped. The ultra tough Lough Derg will once again make sure it is an end to end gallop and this should suit my fancy.
Recommended bet
3pts win Like Minded 17/2 Stan James
Wincanton 3.10
This can go the way of PICTS HILL from the in-form Anthony Honeyball yard. He ran well when finishing third behind Songe at Huntigdon in October. That was his first run for more than six months and today he should be ready to fire. He has previously won over course and distance and the ground conditions should prove ideal. He looks well handicapped with excuses for a couple of his defeats over the past year and his current rating of 122 looks a good 7l-10l bs shy of what he is still capable of.
Recommended bet
2pts e/w Picts Hill 13/2 Betfred
I also recommend a 2pt e/w Patent on the above three horses.
Happy Punting!
Saturday, 19 February 2011
Thursday, 17 February 2011
Results and Tomorrows tips!
Sericina was very impressive in winning the Hunter Chase at Ffos Las. She will improve for the stiffer test and the extra couple of furlongs at Cheltenham and I expect a BIG run. The best price for the Foxhunters is now 16/1 and so those who got the 20's have stolen a bit!
Peddlars Cross was fairly impressive and I wouldn't be concerned that Jason Maguire gave him a couple of reminders up the straight. Given that this was a prep against lesser horses and according to his trainer he wasn't looking his best I would be pleased with the run. The Champion Hurdle could turn out to be the race of the festival!
Newbury
I will stick with my selections from the planned meeting on Saturday. (Cappagh and Notus de la Tour)
Fakenham 3.45
I fancy SEE YOU JACK for Andrew Thornton and Caroline Bailey to take this Novices handicap hurdle. He ran a cracker to be second to Mossley at Huntingdon in October before taking a heavy fall next time. He has disappointed twice since but on both occasions the ground was very testing. I expect to see a much better effort on a sounder surface with the extra distance looking to be in his favour. I would suggest he has Wistow to beat.
Recommended bet
2pts e/w See you Jack 14/1
Peddlars Cross was fairly impressive and I wouldn't be concerned that Jason Maguire gave him a couple of reminders up the straight. Given that this was a prep against lesser horses and according to his trainer he wasn't looking his best I would be pleased with the run. The Champion Hurdle could turn out to be the race of the festival!
Newbury
I will stick with my selections from the planned meeting on Saturday. (Cappagh and Notus de la Tour)
Fakenham 3.45
I fancy SEE YOU JACK for Andrew Thornton and Caroline Bailey to take this Novices handicap hurdle. He ran a cracker to be second to Mossley at Huntingdon in October before taking a heavy fall next time. He has disappointed twice since but on both occasions the ground was very testing. I expect to see a much better effort on a sounder surface with the extra distance looking to be in his favour. I would suggest he has Wistow to beat.
Recommended bet
2pts e/w See you Jack 14/1
Wednesday, 16 February 2011
Big Day!
Its a big day for Peddlars Cross and Donald McCain tomorrow (Thursday). He looks a class above his rivals and if all goes smoothly will win head in chest BUT it was this race last year that saw Zaynar beaten at 1/14 so it might not be a walk in the park. The one to give him most to think about may be Orsippus as likely second fav Bygones of Brid looks to have gone over the top.
Ffos Las 2.00
This should go the way of INVICTUS who would have won last time out at Leicester and the form of that race has already been franked. Trip and the conditions will not be a concern and I take him to win this before going onto bigger and better things.
Recommended bet
3pts win Invictus 5/2 Betfair
Ffos Las 4.15
This shapes like a cracking Hunter Chase with several of these likely to reoppose in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. I have to stick with my Cheltenham fancy SERICINA who has looked super impressive in points and won her hunter well at Taunton last year. She appears to need a good test and the likely testing ground should prove in her favour. I fancy Moncadou will follow the tip home.
Recommended bet
3pts win Sericina 4/1
3pts e/w Sericina Cheltenham Foxhunters Paddy Power/Betfred 20/1
Kelso 1.40
I have plumped for MUSIC OF THE MOOR who was very impressive on debut in heavy ground at Sandown. That race was won in a good time considering the conditions and he looks to have the class that most in this field are lacking. I think the experience gained from that run will stand him in good stead against a coupe of useful types in the bumper field (Priceless Art and Jukebox Melody). Music of the Moor's last run can be ignored as the saddle slipped and he was pulled up early on.
Recommended bet
5pts win Music of the Moor 11/4 Betfair
Ffos Las 2.00
This should go the way of INVICTUS who would have won last time out at Leicester and the form of that race has already been franked. Trip and the conditions will not be a concern and I take him to win this before going onto bigger and better things.
Recommended bet
3pts win Invictus 5/2 Betfair
Ffos Las 4.15
This shapes like a cracking Hunter Chase with several of these likely to reoppose in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. I have to stick with my Cheltenham fancy SERICINA who has looked super impressive in points and won her hunter well at Taunton last year. She appears to need a good test and the likely testing ground should prove in her favour. I fancy Moncadou will follow the tip home.
Recommended bet
3pts win Sericina 4/1
3pts e/w Sericina Cheltenham Foxhunters Paddy Power/Betfred 20/1
Kelso 1.40
I have plumped for MUSIC OF THE MOOR who was very impressive on debut in heavy ground at Sandown. That race was won in a good time considering the conditions and he looks to have the class that most in this field are lacking. I think the experience gained from that run will stand him in good stead against a coupe of useful types in the bumper field (Priceless Art and Jukebox Melody). Music of the Moor's last run can be ignored as the saddle slipped and he was pulled up early on.
Recommended bet
5pts win Music of the Moor 11/4 Betfair
Tuesday, 15 February 2011
Just the one winner today and tips for Wednesday
Dantes Storm couldn't have been anymore impressive in winning his hunter chase today and is now priced at 16/1 for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. I'm not sure he will quite prove up to winning it but he may sneak into a place.
Leicester 3.10
TURTHEN looks to be in with agreat chance of upsetting the favourite Battlecry. I think Turthen will prove to strong in abattle up the straight and his jumping may prove to be the safer. He has run well in Hunter chases over the past couple of seasons and started out well with a good victory over Whizzaar at Wincanton. Although, Battlecry won his point easily this is a different proposition and given his poor level of form in his other recent runs I am happy to take him on.
Recommended Bet
5pts win Turthen 5/2
Leicester 3.10
TURTHEN looks to be in with agreat chance of upsetting the favourite Battlecry. I think Turthen will prove to strong in abattle up the straight and his jumping may prove to be the safer. He has run well in Hunter chases over the past couple of seasons and started out well with a good victory over Whizzaar at Wincanton. Although, Battlecry won his point easily this is a different proposition and given his poor level of form in his other recent runs I am happy to take him on.
Recommended Bet
5pts win Turthen 5/2
Monday, 14 February 2011
Tips for Tuesdays Racing!
Folkestone 3.30
A weak race even by Maiden standards and a chance is taken on O'MALLEYS OSCAR who ran a good race in his bumper debut. He ran an OK race over further at the track last time and I think the drop back will help as well as the added experience. It was also his first run since March last year so he should be spot on fitness wise. The jockey booking of Dennis O'Regan catches the eye and I expect a bold show.
Recommended Bet
5pts win O'Malleys Oscar 13/2 32RED
Folkestone 4.00
NOBUNAGA will take all the beating in this novice hurdle. He showed a good level of form on the flat and after disappointing on his debut over hurdles in Jan 2010. He was then off until last month when making a very impressive return when beating Araldur from the Alan King stable. That race seems to be working out and the time would indicate it wasn't a fluke. He is entered in the Triumph Hurdle and although he probably won't prove up to that level he wont need to be to win tomorrow. The attheraces forecast price is 11/4 but I would imagine he will open around 11/8 and be backed in to odds on.
Recommended bet
5pts win Nobunaga Best opening price
Folkestone 4.30
This looks to me a straightforward chance for DANTE'S STORM to put himself in the reckoning for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham come March. He is unbeaten in point to points and has also won at the course. Song of Songs will be popular but I cannot have a horse who struggled to stay past 2m 4f particularly given that they normally go off very quick in these Hunter chases. I expect the danger to be Snakebite with top female amateur Polly Gundry on board.
Recommended bet
10pts win Dante's Storm 11/8 Betfair
A weak race even by Maiden standards and a chance is taken on O'MALLEYS OSCAR who ran a good race in his bumper debut. He ran an OK race over further at the track last time and I think the drop back will help as well as the added experience. It was also his first run since March last year so he should be spot on fitness wise. The jockey booking of Dennis O'Regan catches the eye and I expect a bold show.
Recommended Bet
5pts win O'Malleys Oscar 13/2 32RED
Folkestone 4.00
NOBUNAGA will take all the beating in this novice hurdle. He showed a good level of form on the flat and after disappointing on his debut over hurdles in Jan 2010. He was then off until last month when making a very impressive return when beating Araldur from the Alan King stable. That race seems to be working out and the time would indicate it wasn't a fluke. He is entered in the Triumph Hurdle and although he probably won't prove up to that level he wont need to be to win tomorrow. The attheraces forecast price is 11/4 but I would imagine he will open around 11/8 and be backed in to odds on.
Recommended bet
5pts win Nobunaga Best opening price
Folkestone 4.30
This looks to me a straightforward chance for DANTE'S STORM to put himself in the reckoning for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham come March. He is unbeaten in point to points and has also won at the course. Song of Songs will be popular but I cannot have a horse who struggled to stay past 2m 4f particularly given that they normally go off very quick in these Hunter chases. I expect the danger to be Snakebite with top female amateur Polly Gundry on board.
Recommended bet
10pts win Dante's Storm 11/8 Betfair
Results from Last Week
Results for the previous week show us with a profit of 272.5 points. Thanks in the main part to the Lucky 15 (3 winners inc 8/1 Shot) and the max bet winning As de Fer!! Lets hope for another good week this week.
Todays two runners were disappointing so I will be looking to find some compensation tomorrow
Todays two runners were disappointing so I will be looking to find some compensation tomorrow
Sunday, 13 February 2011
Good Day!
Today saw 10pt Max bet AS DER FER winning at the unbelievable price of 6/1! He travelled well and never looked like being beaten. I expect him to improve again and expect to see him racing next time over a bit further. HIGHLAND VALLEY was also successful for us, getting the better of the game Araldur and I hope you managed to take the 11/8 available earlier in the day. RAVASTREE was a little disappointing but was probably just beaten by a better horse on the day. Golden Chieftain looked good and is sure to go onto better things. Finally, BENNYS MIST finished a fairly well beaten 6th but I wouldn't be too disappointed. He pulled way too hard early and after making a bit of progress weakened and was looked after by his jock. I would pop him in the notebook until he appears in a handicap.
and tomorrows tips...........
Plumpton 3.30
One that looks to be well in for his handicap appearance is FRONTIER SPIRIT from the Twiston-Davies yard. He ran agood couple of races in bumpers in defeat just appearing to be for a bit of toe. He then won his maiden hurdle well before venturing into novice company and finding the going a bit tougher running into some very decent animals. He was found out on better ground at Ascot last time and I expect the testing conditions forecast to be right up his street. He is currently available at 7/2 with Paddy Power and this looks a steal.
Recommended Bet
5pts win Frontier Spirit 7/2 Paddy Power
and unusally I have a fancy on the all weather
Wolverhampton 4.10
A competitive handicap but I expect to see BLACK COFFEE go close. He has has won his last two races and three of his last four over course and distance. He is up in class but I think the race will be run to suit with a strong pace all but guaranteed. He is priced at 11/2 and this makes him an e/w steal.
Recommended Bet
2pts e/w Black Coffee 11/2 Victor Chandler
Good Luck!
and tomorrows tips...........
Plumpton 3.30
One that looks to be well in for his handicap appearance is FRONTIER SPIRIT from the Twiston-Davies yard. He ran agood couple of races in bumpers in defeat just appearing to be for a bit of toe. He then won his maiden hurdle well before venturing into novice company and finding the going a bit tougher running into some very decent animals. He was found out on better ground at Ascot last time and I expect the testing conditions forecast to be right up his street. He is currently available at 7/2 with Paddy Power and this looks a steal.
Recommended Bet
5pts win Frontier Spirit 7/2 Paddy Power
and unusally I have a fancy on the all weather
Wolverhampton 4.10
A competitive handicap but I expect to see BLACK COFFEE go close. He has has won his last two races and three of his last four over course and distance. He is up in class but I think the race will be run to suit with a strong pace all but guaranteed. He is priced at 11/2 and this makes him an e/w steal.
Recommended Bet
2pts e/w Black Coffee 11/2 Victor Chandler
Good Luck!
Horrendous day for Racing.
Yesterday was as attrocious a day as I can remember in the recent history of racing. The accident in the parade ring at Newbury resulting in the death of Marching Song and Fenix Two as well as the deaths of Money Trix, Glencove Marina and Kilmurry in their respective races.
The only highlight (if it can be called that) was the performance of Unaccompanied over in Ireland. She travelled supremely and probably got to the lead a bit soon and just idled a bit but looks to have an outstanding chance in the Triumph come Cheltenham.
Todays Racing..............
Exeter 2.10
HIGHLAND VALLEY looks to be the clear form pick in the first. He was impressive in winning his bumper particularly considering he would appear to need further than the bare two miles. He then won his debut over hurdles and looks one to keep on the right side of. He last run over three miles in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham may have just a touch too soon but he still ran a cracker to be fourth to Mossley. Todays trip should be Ok although I see his ideal distance around 2m 5f I think he will still have the class and gears to put todays opposition in its place.
Recommended bet
5pts win Highland Valley 11/8 Bet 365
Exeter 3.40
This one could go the way of the Alan King trained RAVASTREE. He won his point at the second time of asking and ran a good debut race over hurdles when finishing fourth in what is shaping to be a very good Newbury novice hurdle a month ago. That day he was given an easy time of it after making a mistake three out and would have been considerably closer if given a harder ride. That should count in his favour today and I expect his jumping to be a bit slicker and the race is definately weaker than on his debut. Trip and ground appear to be suitable and I expect a big run.
Recommended bet
2pts win Ravastree 11/4 Victor Chandler
Exeter 4.10
This race offers a good chance of a follow up win for Anthony Honeyballs AS DE FER. He won his last race as he liked and given it was only his second chase run and he looks a scopey individual I don;'t see the 12lb rise in the weights stopping him. He will in time get further but todays trip looks fine and the ground will hold no terrors. In my pricing up I make him joint fav with Insider dealer so am delighted to see him trading at nearly double the price. Fill your boots!
Recommended bet
10pts win As de Fer 11/2 Stan James
Hereford 3.00
Our Mick looks like a good thing and his price of 4/6 reflects that! I prefer to take an e/w chance on BENNYS MIST who I think will be helped by the better ground and a shorter trip. He has travelled well in his last two races but has looked like a non-stayer (2m 6 1/2f and 2m 3f) and wasn't given a hard race when it became too much. I expect todays trip to be perfect and hge may well run into a place at a decent price. It doesn't hurt that the stabkle are in good form as well.
Recommended bet
2pts e/w Bennys Mist 20/1 32RED
Good luck!
The only highlight (if it can be called that) was the performance of Unaccompanied over in Ireland. She travelled supremely and probably got to the lead a bit soon and just idled a bit but looks to have an outstanding chance in the Triumph come Cheltenham.
Todays Racing..............
Exeter 2.10
HIGHLAND VALLEY looks to be the clear form pick in the first. He was impressive in winning his bumper particularly considering he would appear to need further than the bare two miles. He then won his debut over hurdles and looks one to keep on the right side of. He last run over three miles in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham may have just a touch too soon but he still ran a cracker to be fourth to Mossley. Todays trip should be Ok although I see his ideal distance around 2m 5f I think he will still have the class and gears to put todays opposition in its place.
Recommended bet
5pts win Highland Valley 11/8 Bet 365
Exeter 3.40
This one could go the way of the Alan King trained RAVASTREE. He won his point at the second time of asking and ran a good debut race over hurdles when finishing fourth in what is shaping to be a very good Newbury novice hurdle a month ago. That day he was given an easy time of it after making a mistake three out and would have been considerably closer if given a harder ride. That should count in his favour today and I expect his jumping to be a bit slicker and the race is definately weaker than on his debut. Trip and ground appear to be suitable and I expect a big run.
Recommended bet
2pts win Ravastree 11/4 Victor Chandler
Exeter 4.10
This race offers a good chance of a follow up win for Anthony Honeyballs AS DE FER. He won his last race as he liked and given it was only his second chase run and he looks a scopey individual I don;'t see the 12lb rise in the weights stopping him. He will in time get further but todays trip looks fine and the ground will hold no terrors. In my pricing up I make him joint fav with Insider dealer so am delighted to see him trading at nearly double the price. Fill your boots!
Recommended bet
10pts win As de Fer 11/2 Stan James
Hereford 3.00
Our Mick looks like a good thing and his price of 4/6 reflects that! I prefer to take an e/w chance on BENNYS MIST who I think will be helped by the better ground and a shorter trip. He has travelled well in his last two races but has looked like a non-stayer (2m 6 1/2f and 2m 3f) and wasn't given a hard race when it became too much. I expect todays trip to be perfect and hge may well run into a place at a decent price. It doesn't hurt that the stabkle are in good form as well.
Recommended bet
2pts e/w Bennys Mist 20/1 32RED
Good luck!
Friday, 11 February 2011
Results and Saturday tips
Friday runners and no success. We had Zazamix run an encouraging race in defeat and hopefully will go on to win a chase soon. Amaury de Lusignan was a non-runner and Ravethebrave although being backed into joint favourite and beating Plein Pouvoir easily he was put in his place but the virtually flawless Carrickmines.
Better luck for tomorrow I'm sure! The choices are as follows...............
Newbury 1.55
I'm with A.P McCoy and CAPPAGH here. He ran well behind Grand Crus at Cheltenham in November over a shorter trip and will benefit from the added trip as well as seeming to run well after a break. It would take alot to keep A.P off Dont Push it and I think he looks the progressive one in the line up.
Recommended bet
3pts win Cappagh 100/30 Victor Chandler
Newbury 3.35
As per my blog earlier in the week my money continues to be on NOTUS DE LA TOUR who is a general 12/1 chance but is available at standout odds of 14/1 with Stan James GET ON! The danger would be Walkon from the Alan King yard with anegative being the potential bounce factor in his second race back after a long injury break. That said he was impressive on his return and looks well handicapped and therefore I recommend an e/w saver on him.
Recommended Bet
2pts e/w Notus De La Tour 12/1 (Already recommended! - grab the 14's if you can)
1pt e/w Walkon 7/1 Paddy Power
Warwick 2.40
As mentioned earlier in the week in my Arkle spotlight I expect FINIANS RAINBOW to win come Cheltenham and I fully expect him to win the Kingmaker tomorrow. His price will shorten for the Arkle and I should think the biggest price on offer after tomorrow will be 3/1. Therefore, I recommend a further interest in FR at odds of 4/1 for the big one.
Recommended bet
5pts win Finians Rainbow 4/1 Skybet, Blue Square, Paddy Power, Coral
Warwick 4.20
A good quality novice hurdle and one that I think will throw up a number of future winners. Preference today is for PENNY MAX who although just behind Radetsky March on his debut over hurdles ran too keen and looked like he would improve for the step up in trip. I would steal the 5/1 on offer and cannot see him finishing out of the frame.
Recommended bet
4pts e/w Penny Max 5/1 Paddy Power
Leopardstown 1.10
I have to stick to one of my antepost fancies for the Triumph hurdle at Cheltenham. UNACCOMPANIED was super impressive on debut for Dermot Weld. I think he will ultimately be far better on decent ground but will have the gears even in the ground t get the better of his rivals tomorrow. The price seems fair and I fully expect him to win and win well.
Recommended Bet
3pts win Unaccompanied 100/30 William Hill
Happy Punting!!!
Better luck for tomorrow I'm sure! The choices are as follows...............
Newbury 1.55
I'm with A.P McCoy and CAPPAGH here. He ran well behind Grand Crus at Cheltenham in November over a shorter trip and will benefit from the added trip as well as seeming to run well after a break. It would take alot to keep A.P off Dont Push it and I think he looks the progressive one in the line up.
Recommended bet
3pts win Cappagh 100/30 Victor Chandler
Newbury 3.35
As per my blog earlier in the week my money continues to be on NOTUS DE LA TOUR who is a general 12/1 chance but is available at standout odds of 14/1 with Stan James GET ON! The danger would be Walkon from the Alan King yard with anegative being the potential bounce factor in his second race back after a long injury break. That said he was impressive on his return and looks well handicapped and therefore I recommend an e/w saver on him.
Recommended Bet
2pts e/w Notus De La Tour 12/1 (Already recommended! - grab the 14's if you can)
1pt e/w Walkon 7/1 Paddy Power
Warwick 2.40
As mentioned earlier in the week in my Arkle spotlight I expect FINIANS RAINBOW to win come Cheltenham and I fully expect him to win the Kingmaker tomorrow. His price will shorten for the Arkle and I should think the biggest price on offer after tomorrow will be 3/1. Therefore, I recommend a further interest in FR at odds of 4/1 for the big one.
Recommended bet
5pts win Finians Rainbow 4/1 Skybet, Blue Square, Paddy Power, Coral
Warwick 4.20
A good quality novice hurdle and one that I think will throw up a number of future winners. Preference today is for PENNY MAX who although just behind Radetsky March on his debut over hurdles ran too keen and looked like he would improve for the step up in trip. I would steal the 5/1 on offer and cannot see him finishing out of the frame.
Recommended bet
4pts e/w Penny Max 5/1 Paddy Power
Leopardstown 1.10
I have to stick to one of my antepost fancies for the Triumph hurdle at Cheltenham. UNACCOMPANIED was super impressive on debut for Dermot Weld. I think he will ultimately be far better on decent ground but will have the gears even in the ground t get the better of his rivals tomorrow. The price seems fair and I fully expect him to win and win well.
Recommended Bet
3pts win Unaccompanied 100/30 William Hill
Happy Punting!!!
Thursday, 10 February 2011
So Close!
Todays Lucky 15 at Taunton was so nearly a big pay out! Three winners out of four could so easily have been the full set if young Conor o'Farrell had stayed on board when appearing to loose his iron after jumping the last comfortably in the lead. Still we showed a good profit so can't grumble too much!
Brampour was fairly impressive and will benefit from more of a test so I wouldn't rule out his chances for the Triumph nor would I rush to back him at the best available price of 10/1.
Anyway onto tomorrows racing.......................
Kempton 2.05
I fancy ZAZAMIX to make it career winnner number two thousand for trainer Nicky Henderson. In his last race over hurdles behind Mille Chief he looked for all the world that a step up in trip was needed. He has apparently schooled well over fences and although has a fair bit to find with American Triology from their hurdles form I think he will prove up to the task.
Recommended bet 2pts win
Kempton 2.35
This looks a good chance for AMAURY DE LUSIGNAN. With the expected improvement from his previous run I expect him to prove too strong for his rivals. He was running a good race on his debut under rules before tiring late on. He ran very free that day and if settling today should be involved particulalry as his pedigree and point to point form suggest this step up in trip will suit.
Recommended bet 2pts e/w
finally Kempton 4.20
I can't have the favourite Plein Pouvoir who undoubtedly in form just isn't the same horse on a sound surface. I don't think the step up in trip is in his favour either and have found one to beat him. The most likely winner is RAVETHEBRAVE who looks like he has conditions in his favour. He will be suited by the ground and the trip looks ideal with the likely strong pace sure to suit. I would take the 100/30 available tonight as I expect him to shorten tomorrow.
Recommended bet 3pts win
Brampour was fairly impressive and will benefit from more of a test so I wouldn't rule out his chances for the Triumph nor would I rush to back him at the best available price of 10/1.
Anyway onto tomorrows racing.......................
Kempton 2.05
I fancy ZAZAMIX to make it career winnner number two thousand for trainer Nicky Henderson. In his last race over hurdles behind Mille Chief he looked for all the world that a step up in trip was needed. He has apparently schooled well over fences and although has a fair bit to find with American Triology from their hurdles form I think he will prove up to the task.
Recommended bet 2pts win
Kempton 2.35
This looks a good chance for AMAURY DE LUSIGNAN. With the expected improvement from his previous run I expect him to prove too strong for his rivals. He was running a good race on his debut under rules before tiring late on. He ran very free that day and if settling today should be involved particulalry as his pedigree and point to point form suggest this step up in trip will suit.
Recommended bet 2pts e/w
finally Kempton 4.20
I can't have the favourite Plein Pouvoir who undoubtedly in form just isn't the same horse on a sound surface. I don't think the step up in trip is in his favour either and have found one to beat him. The most likely winner is RAVETHEBRAVE who looks like he has conditions in his favour. He will be suited by the ground and the trip looks ideal with the likely strong pace sure to suit. I would take the 100/30 available tonight as I expect him to shorten tomorrow.
Recommended bet 3pts win
Wednesday, 9 February 2011
Tips for Thursday 10th February
Taunton
2.00
CHRYSANDER looks nailed on to take the opener. The visor worn last time seemed to make a big difference and I take him to continue that run today at the expense of Olivino.
2.30
BRAMPOUR is well thought of by connections and is still thought a live Triumph hurdle shot. To be anywhere near that level he must win today and win well. The danger appears to be Clowance House.
3.30
ARRAYAN from the David Pipe yard has won his previous two races very well and although 19lbs higher than the last win he appeared to have any amount in hand. I think he will go on to better things and has Lidar to beat.
5.00
A chance is taken on CALICO ROSE from the in form Victor Dartnell yard showing improvement in first time cheekpieces. She has shown abit of ability on both her debut and last time out over hurdles. Her mark looks fair and I expect a good showing at a big price.
Recommended Bet
2pts win Lucky 15
Huntingdon
1.40
BISHOPHILL JACK for the Kim Bailey yard looks a likely type to show improvement over this longer trip. He is a point to point winner and was staying on over 2m 6f last time out after being outpaced. Another with a similar profile would be Empire Builder and I expect a close battle to the line.
3.10
A Media Luz will be a very short price to win this but I fancy TWO KISSES who was only six lengths behind Grandouet last time out and made a couple of mistakes. I think at the odds and given that the favourite fell last time now is the time to take her on. Her jumping may be a little more hesitant given her fall last time out and I fully expect Two Kisses to take advantage.
Recommended bet
2pt Win Double
2.00
CHRYSANDER looks nailed on to take the opener. The visor worn last time seemed to make a big difference and I take him to continue that run today at the expense of Olivino.
2.30
BRAMPOUR is well thought of by connections and is still thought a live Triumph hurdle shot. To be anywhere near that level he must win today and win well. The danger appears to be Clowance House.
3.30
ARRAYAN from the David Pipe yard has won his previous two races very well and although 19lbs higher than the last win he appeared to have any amount in hand. I think he will go on to better things and has Lidar to beat.
5.00
A chance is taken on CALICO ROSE from the in form Victor Dartnell yard showing improvement in first time cheekpieces. She has shown abit of ability on both her debut and last time out over hurdles. Her mark looks fair and I expect a good showing at a big price.
Recommended Bet
2pts win Lucky 15
Huntingdon
1.40
BISHOPHILL JACK for the Kim Bailey yard looks a likely type to show improvement over this longer trip. He is a point to point winner and was staying on over 2m 6f last time out after being outpaced. Another with a similar profile would be Empire Builder and I expect a close battle to the line.
3.10
A Media Luz will be a very short price to win this but I fancy TWO KISSES who was only six lengths behind Grandouet last time out and made a couple of mistakes. I think at the odds and given that the favourite fell last time now is the time to take her on. Her jumping may be a little more hesitant given her fall last time out and I fully expect Two Kisses to take advantage.
Recommended bet
2pt Win Double
Last Minute Info
Wednesday 9th February
Ludlow 3.25pm
With a real doubt about the form of the favourites (ruthenoise) run behind Binocular there some value on offer with the best chance looking to be BLUE NYMPH from the Quinn yard. Blue Nymph won his first hurdle race well last season before being campaigned in much better grade finishing in the Triumph at Cheltenham. He looks to be well in off a mark of 117 and should be spot on following a recent run on the AW. The 10/1 currently on offer looks too good to be true with the main danger looking to be Gan On.
Recommended bet
2pts EW Blue Nymph 10/1 Bet 365
Ludlow 3.25pm
With a real doubt about the form of the favourites (ruthenoise) run behind Binocular there some value on offer with the best chance looking to be BLUE NYMPH from the Quinn yard. Blue Nymph won his first hurdle race well last season before being campaigned in much better grade finishing in the Triumph at Cheltenham. He looks to be well in off a mark of 117 and should be spot on following a recent run on the AW. The 10/1 currently on offer looks too good to be true with the main danger looking to be Gan On.
Recommended bet
2pts EW Blue Nymph 10/1 Bet 365
Wednesday 9th February - Ludlow and Punchestown
Firstly, I hope you all took the silly price available on Restezen D'Armor Ludlows 4.00pm race today. The 12/1 available yesterday evening is long gone with VC still best price at 13/2. This still looks a fair price and I think he will take all the beating.
Punchestown 2.10
Seventeen runners and a large number who are completly out of form. I think I will pay to stick with the consistent NOT BEFORE EIGHT. He has solid form is one of the few that will enjoy the trip in the heavy ground and with a clear round looks sure to be in the first four.
Recommended bet
Not before Eight 9/1 Paddy Power
Punchestown 2.10
Seventeen runners and a large number who are completly out of form. I think I will pay to stick with the consistent NOT BEFORE EIGHT. He has solid form is one of the few that will enjoy the trip in the heavy ground and with a clear round looks sure to be in the first four.
Recommended bet
Not before Eight 9/1 Paddy Power
Tuesday, 8 February 2011
GET ON EARLY - This ones odds will shorten!
Ludlow 4.00 Handicap Chase - RESTEZEN D'ARMOR
Everything looks to be in favour for a good run at a very good price at the moment. The trip, course and ground should suit and the Charlie Longsdon yard is still in very good form. In my mind he has Peplum to beat and at odds currently available of 12/1 with Victor Chandler he looks a steal. If you ignore his last run when everything went wrong and price up the race based on the rest of his efforts he should be around a 5/1 chance.
5pts e/w Restezen D'Armor 12/1 Victor Chandler
Everything looks to be in favour for a good run at a very good price at the moment. The trip, course and ground should suit and the Charlie Longsdon yard is still in very good form. In my mind he has Peplum to beat and at odds currently available of 12/1 with Victor Chandler he looks a steal. If you ignore his last run when everything went wrong and price up the race based on the rest of his efforts he should be around a 5/1 chance.
5pts e/w Restezen D'Armor 12/1 Victor Chandler
Antepost Focus - Saturday 12th February
Totesport Trophy
My money is on NOTUS DE LA TOUR from the David Pipe stable. David has inherited his fathers skill at setting targets for his horses and Notus looks like he has been laid out for the race. He had a nice pipe opener at Ascot a couple of weeks ago which should have left him spot on. He appears to have got in on a fair mark and the yard think he has improved over the summer. His opening effort this season was positive as he looked like he was carrying a bit of condition and took a bit of time to get going to the suprise of his trainer who has said he is showing more speed at home. I expect to see him ridden up with the pace as earlier on his career and proving very hard to pass ( a la Lough Derg!!).
2pts e/w 12/1 most bookmakers
My money is on NOTUS DE LA TOUR from the David Pipe stable. David has inherited his fathers skill at setting targets for his horses and Notus looks like he has been laid out for the race. He had a nice pipe opener at Ascot a couple of weeks ago which should have left him spot on. He appears to have got in on a fair mark and the yard think he has improved over the summer. His opening effort this season was positive as he looked like he was carrying a bit of condition and took a bit of time to get going to the suprise of his trainer who has said he is showing more speed at home. I expect to see him ridden up with the pace as earlier on his career and proving very hard to pass ( a la Lough Derg!!).
2pts e/w 12/1 most bookmakers
Antepost Focus - The Arkle
This years Arkle is shaping up to be one of the many highlights of the festival. There are many who are calling the race as a head to head between Nicky Henderson's talented Finians Rainbow and Paul Nicholls Ghizao.
Lets start with a look at Finians Rainbow -
FR is a lighly raced eight year old who is unbeaten in two starts over fences. Both races have been in small fields and some have pointed to this as a negative ahead of his attempt to win the Arkle. I believe that this shouldn't be held against the horse and indeed just seems to be clever placing by Nicky Henderson to make sure the horse has a good sight of his fences and has been able to get into a good rhythm in his early races. He was the highest rated hurdler of the likely runners and was only found out by the extra trip in last years Neptune being beaten under seven lengths by the impressive Peddlars Cross. It is also important to note that he easily beat Ghizao that day. Ground isn't too much of a concern and if you read literally the form of his Newbury mauling of Hell's Bay he is the stand out horse.
Next up Ghizao -
Ghizao was rated a few pounds inferior to FR over hurdles but has also been very impressive in his chase outings to date (particularly when beating Captain Chris 10l and Loosen my load over course and distance in November. He has shown a good turn of foot off a decent pace and seems to be ideally suited by 2miles on softish ground. His only defeat was against Kilmurray on good ground where the winning time was faster than standard. His jumping has in the main part been very good and i expect to see him challenging FR up the hill (as long as their is soft in the going) but will he get past?
EW possibilities for Medermit -
Alan King has just confirmed the Arkle as Medermits target and I must say I am not suprised. Some may doubt he has the pace for an Arkle but the combination of a likely carzy fast pace, good to soft ground and the Cheltenham hill certainly bring him into the firing line. I believe he is best over 2m or 2m1f off a fast pace as indeed he showed over hurdles at the festival in 2009 when just failing to reach Go Native in the Supreme. The only question for me is if his jumping will hold and keep him close enough to make his challenge late up the hill.
Lively Outsider -
If the ground were to come up very soft I would be tempted to have a small e/w wager on another Henderson horse - Nadiya de la Vega. She was well beaten by Medermit over 2m 5f on good ground at Sandown where everything would have been against her. Back over two miles with testing ground and she could throw a spanner in the works. She was impressive in beating Pepe Simo over 2 miles on good to soft and I believe her to be able to cope with softer ground better than any of the leading chances.
Result
5pts Win Finians Rainbow 4/1 Sky Bet, BetFred, Bet 365
1pt e/w Nadiya de la Vega 50/1 Stan James
Lets start with a look at Finians Rainbow -
FR is a lighly raced eight year old who is unbeaten in two starts over fences. Both races have been in small fields and some have pointed to this as a negative ahead of his attempt to win the Arkle. I believe that this shouldn't be held against the horse and indeed just seems to be clever placing by Nicky Henderson to make sure the horse has a good sight of his fences and has been able to get into a good rhythm in his early races. He was the highest rated hurdler of the likely runners and was only found out by the extra trip in last years Neptune being beaten under seven lengths by the impressive Peddlars Cross. It is also important to note that he easily beat Ghizao that day. Ground isn't too much of a concern and if you read literally the form of his Newbury mauling of Hell's Bay he is the stand out horse.
Next up Ghizao -
Ghizao was rated a few pounds inferior to FR over hurdles but has also been very impressive in his chase outings to date (particularly when beating Captain Chris 10l and Loosen my load over course and distance in November. He has shown a good turn of foot off a decent pace and seems to be ideally suited by 2miles on softish ground. His only defeat was against Kilmurray on good ground where the winning time was faster than standard. His jumping has in the main part been very good and i expect to see him challenging FR up the hill (as long as their is soft in the going) but will he get past?
EW possibilities for Medermit -
Alan King has just confirmed the Arkle as Medermits target and I must say I am not suprised. Some may doubt he has the pace for an Arkle but the combination of a likely carzy fast pace, good to soft ground and the Cheltenham hill certainly bring him into the firing line. I believe he is best over 2m or 2m1f off a fast pace as indeed he showed over hurdles at the festival in 2009 when just failing to reach Go Native in the Supreme. The only question for me is if his jumping will hold and keep him close enough to make his challenge late up the hill.
Lively Outsider -
If the ground were to come up very soft I would be tempted to have a small e/w wager on another Henderson horse - Nadiya de la Vega. She was well beaten by Medermit over 2m 5f on good ground at Sandown where everything would have been against her. Back over two miles with testing ground and she could throw a spanner in the works. She was impressive in beating Pepe Simo over 2 miles on good to soft and I believe her to be able to cope with softer ground better than any of the leading chances.
Result
5pts Win Finians Rainbow 4/1 Sky Bet, BetFred, Bet 365
1pt e/w Nadiya de la Vega 50/1 Stan James
Tuesday 8th February
Todays main interest lies at Market Rasen and I shall be posting some Cheltenham Ante-post selections later today.
Market Rasen 2.05
For me this looks like a clear cut chance for the Nicky Henderson trained THANKS FOR COMING. He won his bumper well (on good ground) and then showed a willing attitude when finishing third in a decent novice hurdle at Doncaster. Barry Gerahty wasn't hard on him last time and I would expect to see continued improvement.
3pts Win 11/4 Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James
Market Rasen 3.05
A poor handicap chase that shouldn't take too much winning. I like the chances of LEOPARD HILLS from the Alison Thorpe yard. He looks exactly the type with which Alison excels and one of the few that looks to be suited by the trip of 2m 5f. Plenty of these will be crying enough a coupe of furlongs out while I fully expect Leopard Hills to run all the way to the line. His second over 2miles on the flat while staying on looks good in the context of this race and with the exception of three out in his last race has jumped very well.
2pts e/w 10/1 Victor Chandler, Stan James
Happy Punting!
Market Rasen 2.05
For me this looks like a clear cut chance for the Nicky Henderson trained THANKS FOR COMING. He won his bumper well (on good ground) and then showed a willing attitude when finishing third in a decent novice hurdle at Doncaster. Barry Gerahty wasn't hard on him last time and I would expect to see continued improvement.
3pts Win 11/4 Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James
Market Rasen 3.05
A poor handicap chase that shouldn't take too much winning. I like the chances of LEOPARD HILLS from the Alison Thorpe yard. He looks exactly the type with which Alison excels and one of the few that looks to be suited by the trip of 2m 5f. Plenty of these will be crying enough a coupe of furlongs out while I fully expect Leopard Hills to run all the way to the line. His second over 2miles on the flat while staying on looks good in the context of this race and with the exception of three out in his last race has jumped very well.
2pts e/w 10/1 Victor Chandler, Stan James
Happy Punting!
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