Antepost Focus - The Arkle

This years Arkle is shaping up to be one of the many highlights of the festival. There are many who are calling the race as  a head to head between Nicky Henderson's talented Finians Rainbow and Paul Nicholls Ghizao.

Lets start with a look at Finians Rainbow -
FR is a lighly raced eight year old who is unbeaten in two starts over fences. Both races have been in small fields and some have pointed to this as a negative ahead of his attempt to win the Arkle. I believe that this shouldn't be held against the horse and indeed just seems to be clever placing by Nicky Henderson to make sure the horse has a good sight of his fences and has been able to get into a good rhythm in his early races. He was the highest rated hurdler of the likely runners and was only found out by the extra trip in last years Neptune being beaten under seven lengths by the impressive Peddlars Cross. It is also important to note that he easily beat Ghizao that day. Ground isn't too much of a concern and if you read literally the form of his Newbury mauling of Hell's Bay he is the stand out horse.

Next up Ghizao -
Ghizao was rated a few pounds inferior to FR over hurdles but has also been very impressive in his chase outings to date (particularly when beating Captain Chris 10l and Loosen my load over course and distance in November. He has shown a good turn of foot off a decent pace and seems to be ideally suited by 2miles on softish ground. His only defeat was against Kilmurray on good ground where the winning time was faster than standard. His jumping has in the main part been very good and i expect to see him challenging FR up the hill (as long as their is soft in the going) but will he get past?

EW possibilities for Medermit -
Alan King has just confirmed the Arkle as Medermits target and I must say I am not suprised. Some may doubt he has the pace for an Arkle but the combination of a likely carzy fast pace, good to soft ground and the Cheltenham hill certainly bring him into the firing line. I believe he is best over 2m or 2m1f off a fast pace as indeed he showed over hurdles at the festival in 2009 when just failing to reach Go Native in the Supreme. The only question for me is if his jumping will hold and keep him close enough to make his challenge late up the hill.

Lively Outsider -
If the ground were to come up very soft I would be tempted to have a small e/w wager on another Henderson horse - Nadiya de la Vega. She was well beaten by Medermit over 2m 5f on good ground at Sandown where everything would have been against her. Back over two miles with testing ground and she could throw a spanner in the works. She was impressive in beating Pepe Simo over 2 miles on good to soft and I believe her to be able to cope with softer ground better than any of the leading chances.

Result
5pts Win Finians Rainbow 4/1 Sky Bet, BetFred, Bet 365

1pt e/w Nadiya de la Vega 50/1 Stan James